Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 3.384101 4.070956 4.839282 5.759137 6.826976 8.023949 9.463462
2025-03-30 2.290398 3.126899 4.164948 5.534429 7.278605 9.409452 12.191221
2025-04-06 1.708691 2.601332 3.810783 5.539279 7.910628 11.009615 15.317625
2025-04-13 1.309378 2.198888 3.501711 5.497235 8.412931 12.442555 18.338976
2025-04-20 1.112500 2.032489 3.471830 5.807018 9.398775 14.590484 22.501572
2025-04-27 0.940067 1.859117 3.387835 6.001783 10.212133 16.544750 26.542985
2025-05-04 0.822193 1.748020 3.375520 6.291270 11.181345 18.793558 31.182883
2025-05-11 0.679847 1.558185 3.192326 6.261402 11.620350 20.250250 34.719342
2025-05-18 0.541086 1.341006 2.918593 6.026380 11.675880 21.083633 37.322092
2025-05-25 0.425275 1.141389 2.638992 5.732154 11.580838 21.640960 39.495981
2025-06-01 0.357897 1.031431 2.514801 5.707337 11.951682 22.992577 43.054557
2025-06-08 0.307510 0.948574 2.431125 5.746723 12.437273 24.568932 47.088309
2025-06-15 0.259692 0.861268 2.325956 5.734973 12.838446 26.054162 51.121984
2025-06-22 0.205501 0.740642 2.121756 5.482823 12.739168 26.624457 53.588523
2025-06-29 0.174172 0.675456 2.036425 5.477615 13.133844 28.135090 57.843679
2025-07-06 0.146206 0.611285 1.940470 5.432446 13.436697 29.488791 61.893829
2025-07-13 0.136339 0.603329 1.990091 5.737756 14.517507 32.424929 69.079980
2025-07-20 0.123239 0.580029 1.993506 5.930028 15.367165 34.960101 75.650688
2025-07-27 0.114532 0.570045 2.032621 6.216342 16.452192 38.037086 83.435987
2025-08-03 0.097705 0.522729 1.953387 6.186720 16.811834 39.657515 88.470283
2025-08-10 0.078600 0.457832 1.806232 5.954116 16.671228 40.225788 91.449743
2025-08-17 0.061759 0.394308 1.647564 5.662955 16.354926 40.391295 93.617050
2025-08-24 0.052688 0.362631 1.586815 5.638396 16.686343 41.967006 98.743610